Terry H. Schwadron
May 22, 2024
Perhaps it is a sign of our times that the first reaction to hearing about the apparently accidental death of the president of Iran is worry about any sudden imbalance of the world’s tension into new conflict.
Iran President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian died Sunday in a helicopter accident in bad weather in a rugged area of the country, setting off speculation about what’s to come both inside Iran and in its regional clashes.
There was only a modicum of official Western sympathy for a leader who has cracked down on individual liberty, who has locked up critics, who has run Iran’s economy further into the ground, and who has been a steady source for terror attacks on U.S. troops and on Israelis. Yet, the death feels to be an oversized moment for world fragility.
From all accounts, the deaths seem unlikely to change either the harsh domestic policies for Iranians, immediately alter the knife’s edge tensions in the Middle East, or Iran’s tenuous standoff with world powers over nuclear weapons. The power of the country resides with the Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei, 85, who, despite declining health, calls the shots.
If anything, we have learned, Raisi’s death may alter the succession plans for the ayatollah.
But the immediate reaction was apprehension, even a chilling fear, that a misplaced announcement blaming, say, Israelis or U.S. intelligence figures for causing the accident could send us around the bend into global war.
A Period of High Tension
The deaths come as military tensions are high and when the leadership of Iran, Israel and the United States all are in question, with war in the Middle East, Europe and clashes building in Asia. They come as European leaders seem to be coiling their defenses in recognition of populist fever against counting on U.S. commitments as a serious ally, and as aggressive acts by Russia, China, North Korea, and any number of Iranian-fronted terror groups are on the increase.
It feels all too easy for errant diplomacy and policy as well as an errant missile launch to move us into a cataclysmic global war.
Considering the tensions, you would think the ability to listen, analyze, and chart a foreign policy would be the top priority for a U.S. presidential election. Instead, as we know, we’re awash in simplistic sloganeering about culture issues, the high prices at the supermarket, and the battle over whether our normal laws even apply to a president, former president, or candidate for the presidency,
Instead of thoughtfulness, we seem increasingly to value “strength,” as measured in ballistic and bombastic language — exactly at a time in which true strength more likely should be measured by the ability to keep the calm as the parties work through the most recent violation of the human code.
The idea of a pending presidential debate between two old foes who speak entirely different language about how to keep us safe should be as unsettling as hearing that a major foe is changing leaders. Donald Trump will bellow about American image, while Joe Biden will defend dependence on layered diplomacy.
The chill at hearing of an accidental death of an adversary should make us think twice about who we need in a tense world.
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